Everything is settled and we have the plans in place to take us forward in a way like never before.
I am sure the testimonial received this morning will attest to that.
However, a big number of members are always personally striving to take their Elite experience to another level. This newsletter is simply a suggestion for those members as to where to concentrate if you are looking to get an even greater edge with your Elite investment.
Non Elite-Punters Lament
The squeezing of odds/margins by bookmakers due to their own external pressures is driving some professional punters away from Australian horse racing altogether.
They rely on overlay odds betting and are finding less and less horses that are offered at their required minimum odds. Those horses that still are at their bettable odds are paying 4.0%+ less than before – that’s their margin gone!
They work to high-volume/very low profit percentage and that has been completely eroded over recent times.
Fortunately, that’s not the way Elite punting is structured. We have never been an overlay service.
Our edge is higher than average long-term winning top-rated strike rates combined with well above industry-accepted average winning odds.
Of course our average winning odds has slipped this year but we still have a huge margin that is the envy of non-Elite punters.
Elite Punters Greater Advantage
It is great that we are positioned way ahead of the game but that’s not the main good news story in this newsletter!
The development of the Elite Top-Rated grading algorithms has turned out to be probably the greatest step forward we have ever taken.
You all have access to the algorithms and believe me, a lot of members have been poring over them and can’t hide their amazement that a few relatively simple algorithms could have such a positive effect. The more I delve into the possibilities that the grading system has opened up, the harder it is to keep a lid on my enthusiasm.
The bottom line is that the higher up the grading system you concentrate, the greater the strike rates and profits.
And that applies to whichever plan you care to study. The performance data that is a product of the Good and OK Top-Raters is unprecedented.
Once I really got it, it was full steam ahead to polish my personal raceday combination of strategies that I outlined (and showed proof of my actual bets) in the recent newsletter.
Now, I’m not here to come out with a new combo plan where we work out the qualifiers and add another list on raceday. But I do want to let you know how I am capturing the most likely potential winners from several plans and point you in the right direction as to how to put a similar plan together.
Members who wish to apply this in some form for their own betting have access to all the necessary data on the race-morning messages.
An Elite Recipe
My process is to simply take the best qualifiers from several plans, mix them together noting their different sources and remove duplicate qualifiers. You are left with one horse in a race with a notation for each plan it was sourced from.
Note: Larry Best that are graded Average have to be noted separately (for my spreadsheet) because they cannot coincide with any of the other plans’ contributors. All the other Top-Rated contributions are from Good or OK gradings.
Example: 16th Nov Sandown
The only time we are looking at NON Elite Top-Rated selections is when an Elite-Filter qualifier is rated 2, 3 or 4 like Gold Fields and Crystal Dreamer.
1a Top-Rated Elite Filters Good or OK: “EF”: Azuro, Home Of The Brave, Southern France
1b Non Top-Rated Elite Filters”: “EF 2-3-4” Gold Fields, Crystal Dreamer
2 Top-Ratio (Good/OK): “TR” Azuro, Home of The Brave, Southern France (Not Plein Ceil, average).
3 Larry’s Best: “LB” Azuro (Larry’s Best in Good or OK Race)
4 Money Trail: “MT” Elite Top-Rated Good or OK: Azuro, Home Of The Brave, Southern France.
We have 11 candidates but the same horses sometimes coincide so we remove duplicates noting their source/s.
Our Final List is:
Azuro: source EF, TR, LB and MT
Gold Fields: EF 2-3-4
Crystal Dreamer: EF 2-3-4
Home Of The Brave: EF, TR, MT
Southern France: EF, TR, MT
They are the bets for the day. You could simply apply a level bet on all. However, because the qualifiers from multiple sources have greater strike rate and profit rate you will probably apply a scale accordingly.
My scale is:
1.0% for single sourced qualifiers unless it’s an EF 2-3-4 – they get 1.40%
1.50% for dual sourced qualifiers
2.0% for triple source qualifiers.
2.20% for quadruple source qualifiers
I have added a couple of further personal technical blocks but no great bottom line difference if you disregard:
No bet if single sourced Top-Ratio
No bet L-Best in Good and Ok unless 2 or more OTHER sources.
No bet Ric’s Best unless 2 or more OTHER sources.
At first glance it seems like a lot of extra race-morning work for little benefit. We could simply back the Elite Filters and back the same three winners.
True, but some days there are several Plein Ceils that this Best of the Best concept rejects. Remember the aim is to skim the cream off the main plans.
Also, there can be contributions from several sources which increase the investment on horses like Southern France.
All I can say is that this approach has hit with 42% winners (Mel-Syd) from 690 bets from Jan 2019. The net profit on turnover is 64%.
The Elite Filters is a 38% strike rate plan with a net profit of 55%.
I just like the multiple strategy contributions that help keep any losing runs to a more manageable level.
Looking at this concept applied to this season’s data so far shows a net profit (using my scale) of $6,498 as compared to Elite Filters $2,602 from a similar number of bets.
In November alone the Elite Filters have made $1,266 whilst this combo idea has produced $1,704.
On the single example day (Mel Nov 16th) the Elite Filters made $596 (+66%) from 6 bets. The combo idea as presented above made $1,094 (+122%) from 5 bets.
I hope I have given a starting point for those members who are always looking for ways to wring a few more percent out of their Elite investment.
This extra work on raceday will not be of interest to some members for varying reasons. I understand and nothing lost.
We are still going to at least double your Elite Filter Bank over the next 12 months.
Unsolicited feedback from another winning Elite member