It’s action aplenty coming up – five racedays covered in a week!
It all starts on Saturday where we have Flem, Rosehill, Eagle Farm, Morphettville and Ascot.
The Nationwide-Best service is very popular. Last week, the three racedays (15th, 21st and 22nd) produced 6 Nationwide-Best winners from 15 bets and made $790 net profit. The winners were at Caulfield, Doomben, Randwick and Ascot.
That is remarkable considering the weird weather and changing track conditions at several of those meetings.
Friday night, we were working to a S-5. The expected rain did not come and they raced on a G-3.
Saturday we went with the official grading of S-6 but the rain came and the meeting started on a H-8.
When selection algorithms are so finely tuned, a track condition change of two or more grades can wreak havoc so to maintain a 43% strike-rate is fantastic.
Nationwide members are loving it and It’s only $18 per week!
Platinum Members E4 Betting
Platinum Excel Spreadsheet users will notice additional filter possibilities in the E4-Online spreadsheet.
We are researching (including input from professional-betting clients) areas of weakness and out-performance which, harnessed correctly, can potentially improve the already excellent E4 profit percentage.
Our goal for E4 is to increase the profit rate by more than 30% to 100+% profit on turnover long-term.
A couple of areas of weakness are price (AM-Odds too short), and WFA races.
We have programmed a filter for those variables. You can change the min odds or turn the WFA filter off/on and see the effect straight away.
When “ON” is chosen, the “danger” column will show entries that are affected by that filter (Example shows “Wfa”).
We recommend that you play around with the filters to see the impact on the profits and strike-rates.
For example, with the Min Odds set at the default of $2.10, the profit on turnover for 2021-2022 is 69%.
If we don’t apply that minimum odds (change to 1.00) then the profit-on-turnover drops to 65%.
The actual dollar profit is very similar but the short-priced runners are virtually break-even despite 58% winning strike-rate.
This is a work in progress and where it leads us is not clear yet. It will result in even stronger E4 results long-term which are very good already:
2021-2022 E4 Betting
It is interesting to note that since going live (Aug 2022), Melbourne has contributed $1,545 net profit. With the above filters turned on, that profit is $2,355. We will be looking at Sydney.
Unfortunately is it so busy here that we haven’t got time to go into further detail for non-spreadsheet users but we will elaborate in the coming weeks.
The Mel Combo and Mel-Pro bets come back into the E4 equation after Cup-week so any conclusions/recommendations will be advised and in place before their November 12th restart.
What about Mel Pro Mel Combo?
We ran those two filters through Mel Combo and Mel-Pro strategies for 2021-2022. (you can do this on the Master-Data spreadsheet that is uploaded race-mornings and resulted after the races).
Mel Combo qualifiers less than $2.10 AM (morning odds)
24 bets, 10 winners
Return $ 3201
Loss $ 1039 (- 24.5%)
Mel Combo qualifiers in WFA races
25 bets, 2 winners
Return $ 975
Loss $ 3075 (- 76%)
Before and After
The difference in profits for Mel-Combo after applying these two simple filters is astonishing.
The Mel-Pro strategy shows almost identical profit increases with the two filters applied.
These are two areas that members can avoid straight away.
We will take steps to rid these main plans of such obvious dead weight as well as take advantage of areas that we determine to be consistent out-performers. That will be done in time for the post cup-week racing – when Mel Combo and Mel-Pro get going again.
Watch this space.
Larry and Richard