We received feedback from a member regarding his perceived lack of success betting in Mel since joining on October 30th 2020.
We are proud of our after sales service and advice so we asked him to provide a list of his bets so we could analyse and advise.
Often when we do this, the member has no record and no idea of past bets but this time we were provided with a complete bookie printout of every bet since October – 48 x A4 pages with bets from Happy Valley to Gold Coast, Multis, win-by-more-than-a head, you name it!
Straight away we know this member is genuine and really is seeking help and advice.
Here was my evaluation and advice:
“Thank you very much for providing the complete list of your betting. It makes it so clear where the problem lies and how to fix it.
We printed the list out to analyse and it came to 48 pages! I am very impressed that you have lost so little. You are betting on everything that moves and you must immediately isolate your main strategy bets from hundreds of mug bets.
If you want to take the strategy bets in multis, fine but do NOT use your main bank.
I recommend you open a separate betting account and bet the Elite-Filters at BOB (Best of the Best).
Let’s look at Melbourne betting since you started.
The main plan is Elite-Filters and you actually started on the first day of the current algorithm.
Mel Elite-Filters October 31st to March 31st
These are really strong numbers with a 35% strike rate and $2,846 NET profit per $10k bank.
Willy Nilly Betting
Another thing that was clear was that the bet sizes were all over the place.
On Saturday there were two Elite Filter bets at Bendigo.
He bet $15 win on Ironclad @ $2.60 (that was a very good price, our results record $2.20 BOB)
$15 place Ironclad at $1.35 and
$25 win on Defiant Dancer @ $5.50 (boosted).
That’s $55.00 invested for a return of $39.00 for Ironclad’s win and $20.25 for Ironclad’s place bet.
Defiant Dancer came second (no return).
Bet: $55.00, Return $59.25 (+ $4.25)
The actual as-listed bets on Defiant Dancer and Ironclad were both 1.5% of the bank straight-out. ($150 per $10k bank).
Now, on Saturday his bet-size decisions did not make much difference. Assume a $25 win bet on both at top-Flucts:
Bet $50 Return ($25 x $2.20) = $55.00. (+ $5.00)
So what’s the big deal, he’s done as well as a disciplined member betting exactly as listed according to the bank?
The big deal is:
- He has decided that Defiant Dancer should have a 25% larger win bet than Ironclad despite being listed as equal bets.
- He has made the decision to bet each-way Ironclad but not Defiant Dancer (2nd $1.60)
Those two decisions are certainly not unique to this one member. I suspect a significant percentage of clients do variations of exactly the same thing on raceday. It’s human nature and very hard to bring under control.
- But the biggest deal is the extra bets on Saturday from the same bank:
His $10 EW bet on the Slipper lost, a $6.50 multi in Perth lost and a $10 EW bet in Sha Tin lost.
That’s only three extra bets which is fine, very restrained in fact. It is very hard to sit there all day and not participate.
The point is that some of these extra ‘fun’ bets are nearly as big as the Filter bets and have turned a small win into a significant loss for the day.
For a very small punter, a loss of $42.25 for the day is a lot – especially when it should have been a winning day.
That can be magnified many times for punters who really let loose on a Saturday.
All I ask is that you physically set up a real bank for your real bets. Don’t ever allocate your mug bets from that account.
Try it, you will soon be surprised at the difference in fortune between your professional bank and your mug-bet bank.
Once again I really appreciate the feedback and total transparency of the member in question. I am genuinely impressed that he is getting the best of the odds and has kept his losses to a minimum despite hundreds of ‘fun/mug’ bets placing a big target on his back for the bookies.
He has reached out and I hope we have been able to help, not only him, but lots of other members who may be ready to take their betting to the next level.
He is a ‘normal’ punter but unfortunately, normal does not cut it if you want to bet professionally at the Elite level.