Elite Top-Rated Melbourne and Sydney 2017-2018 Analysis

Elite Top-Rated Melbourne and Sydney 2017-2018 Analysis

Statistics and Analysis of ALL 1500 Top-Rated Tips for 2017-2018

Reference: Comprehensive Top-Rated spreadsheet for Melbourne and Sydney 2017-2018:
Elite-Ratings-Top-Rated-Mel-Syd-2017-2018-Master Dec 12th 2018 Excel Spreadsheet

Elite’s long-term top-rated results for Melbourne and Sydney at the absolute base level are out-performing the opposition by a long way (independently assessed number one for performance from 50 others) due to strong strike rate and industry-leading value odds of our winners.
That translates to very strong long-term bottom lines of the main strategies that we recommend.

That is great but the time has come to unshackle that performance from the burden of known perennial poor-performing areas.

This follows last Saturday’s race-day note for Pakenham when, in a bit of a knee-jerk action, I advised that I would no longer record results of those races identified as weak or dangerous. We had the situation where races 2-3-4-5 were rated but were not going to be recorded.

However, several clients immediately made the case for keeping them in the results spreadsheets to help with their private analysis.

For example, one member pointed to the $21,000 first four and $976 Tri that our multi system landed when top-rated Prezado won @ $9.00 in race 5 from St Velorem $17, Manolo Blahniq $13 and Kakanui $41. He needs that race’s data recorded.

Here is Saturday’s all-rated list with multi instructions and successful collects marked in yellow.

Elite Racing - All Rated Multi Pak Result

This newsletter is all about Top-Rated selections only. All the data contained herein can be referenced and analysed from the single all-new Sydney-Melbourne Top-Rated Master Spreadsheet attached. Read on for detailed analysis of our actual TOP-Rated results for 2017-2018 for Mel and Syd and along with our solution to rating, betting and recording the problematic weak/dangerous betting races.

In this newsletter:

  • What has actually been delivered to Elite Members in 2017-2018. Top-Rated, Top-Zone, Larry and Ric’s private Elite-Top, Sydney Gold (Top Raters), Sydney Gold Pro (Top-Raters).
  • Explanation of all the analytical fields included within all the spreadsheets.
  • The all new Syd-Mel Top-Rated Master Spreadsheet.
  • Tips on using the spreadsheet
  • Explanation of what we are doing about those problematic ‘dangerous’ betting races and the positive effect on performance.
  • SUMMARY – Don’t miss it.

Firstly let’s look at the Top-Rated performance for 2017-2018 over our main betting strategies.

Monthly Analysis of ALL Top-Rated Mel and Syd 2017-2018

Elite Racing = Mel-Syd TOP ALL 2017 2018-1

This is a month by monthly summary of ALL Top-Rated Mel & Syd tips as delivered in 2017-2018 – no exceptions, the whole lot.

$100 Level Bets.

Later on we show that rejecting some races by using three simple, logical exclusion rules in both states, sees a near doubling of the net base top-rated profit. But this is the base, as delivered, Top-Rated performance.

More than $600 per month NET PROFIT  is a very solid result for a hundred bucks on EVERY one of the 1500 top-rated tips.

 

Monthly Analysis of Melbourne Top-Zone qualifiers 2017-2018

Elite Racing - Mel Top Zone ALL 2017-2018-1

This summary shows the Mel Top-Zone qualifiers for 2017-2018. The algorithm we are using is included in the Top-Zone spreadsheet so members can follow the formulas and therefore audit results. The ‘danger’ races discussion later in this newsletter must be read in conjunction with this list.

Analysis of Sydney Gold (Top-Raters) 2017-2018.

Elite Racing - Syd Gold 2017 2018 ALL races

This shows the Sydney Gold (top-rated) qualifiers for 2017-2018. The Sydney Gold bets are listed in the new Top-Rated Mel-Syd Master spreadsheet. The algorithm we are using is included in the Sydney Master Data spreadsheet so members can follow the formulas and therefore audit results.

Analysis of Sydney Gold PRO (Top-Raters) 2017-2018.

Elite Racing - Syd Gold PRO 2017 2018 ALL

The Top-Rated Sydney Gold PRO bets are now included in the Top-Rated Mel-Syd Master spreadsheet. This shows the Sydney Gold PRO qualifiers for 2017-2018. The algorithm we are using is included in the Sydney All-Data spreadsheet so members can follow the formulas and therefore audit results.

 

Larry and Ric’s Private Elite-Top Filter Sydney and Melbourne 2017-2018

 Elite Racing - Elite Top 2017 2018 ALL

Larry and Ric’s private filter applied to Top-Rated Mel and Syd selections are listed Top-Rated Mel-Syd Master spreadsheet. (emailed to Mel-Syd members)

This shows the monthly results of those  Elite-Top qualifiers for 2017-2018

No rules or formulas provided so no way for members to check the pre November 2018 results.
They have been provided live as a bonus to Mel-Syd members since Nov 17th 2018 and are already showing solid profits from the 23 bets in real time. (+ $757)

 

NOTES and Member Guidance

ON THE Elite Ratings Top-Rated Mel-Syd Master spreadsheet

The following refers to data provided in the Elite Ratings Top-Rated Mel-Syd Master Spreadsheet.

I know that most members can open, view and apply filters to Microsoft Excel spreadsheets. No special knowledge is necessary except a very basic knowledge of Excel.
I really recommend getting Excel from Microsoft.com, it is cheap at less than $10 per month for the Office suite (Word, Excel, PowerPoint etc). There are free Excel viewers, simply google free Microsoft excel viewers.

All you need to know is how to click on a down arrow and choose options from a drop down list.

I guarantee that if you are into stats and what-ifs you will get much more from your Elite membership when you have instant answers at your fingertips to any filter you want to try.

 

Here is an example of applying a filter on the Form column.

Simply click the down arrow, choose from the list (say 1 and 2 to see the results for just the top or second top rated in form) and click OK.
The list of results will then include the complete data only for the Top-Raters that have 1 or 2 form rating. All the summaries and totals will update instantly with new results (Strike rates, profits etc).

Elite Racing - Filter Example

Have a look at all the variables that you can filter on the next page. You can apply multiple filters at the same time (eg: Mares, 1400m, Cau…).

For those who don’t want to take advantage of the spreadsheet data provided, I will include some stats in this presentation but obviously can’t do what-ifs on a personal basis for members.

 

Analytical Fields

 EVERY Elite Top-Rated selection is included in the Elite Ratings Top-Rated Mel-Syd Master Spreadsheet – more than 1500 Top Rated tips in 2017-2018.

We are proud that Melbourne and Sydney can produce such impressive strike rates and profits from this most basic test of a rating service.

A simple $100 level bet on every Mel-SYD top-rater since January 2017 has made $15,870 NET PROFIT. That’s $157 profit per week or $682 per month.

The spreadsheet includes lots of fields that provide amazing analysis capabilities. The analytical fields come from the Master Data Spreadsheet which keeps complete records of the top-five rated selections in each rated race.

Obviously the Top-Rated spreadsheet concentrates solely on TOP-Raters.

  • Date
  • Track
  • Rated to (Going expected)
  • Rail position
  • Race Number
  • Distance
  • Race Type
  • Race Restriction (benchmark races, 3yo, Set Weights etc)
  • Race Prizemoney (list in thousands. Eg: $150,000 listed as 150)
  • TAB Number
  • Horse Name
  • Pace of Horse: Speed Map listing the expected position in run
  • AM Odds: Accurate morning odds, an incredible guide as to the expected betting later on
  • Trainer
  • Jockey
  • Claim: Apprentice Allowance
  • Barrier: Actual barrier after scratchings.
  • Weight Allotted
  • Weight To Carry
  • Form position: Elite’s famous form rating (1 is the highest rating, down to 5)
  • Scenario Rating: The five horses best suited under todays conditions (pace, going, dist, course etc) 1 is the highest rating down to 5
  • Rated: Rated position. 1= Top-Rated)
  • Elite Odds: The horse’s price assessed by Elite Ratings expressed in dollar terms.
  • Pro-Strategy Original $4k: Since 1987 we have provided a suggested bet (assuming a $4k bank) on the top one, two or three rated selections. Not a suggested strategy but a strong guide to our confidence.
  • Starters: Number of runners
  • FIN: Finishing position – Won, 2nd, 3rd, NTD (No third Div) or blank for unplaced.
  • Best Odds: Best of Top-Flucts or Best Tote.
  • Place Div: allows place betting analysis.
  • DANGER: This column lists known dangerous betting areas where Top-Rated bets should at least be reduced. There are three main negative areas for Melbourne and the same for Sydney and the details are listed when a top-rater is in a poor-performing race type (eg: Low BM races etc).
  • Month: The month is listed as a number from 1-12.

That is a LOT of powerful analytical fields that Elite members have at their fingertips.

 

Betting Strategies Included in the Top-Rated Mel-Syd Master spreadsheet

We have included the qualifying bets for our main strategies in the spreadsheet. Keep in mind that the Elite Ratings Top-Rated Mel-Syd Master Spreadsheet is purely a TOP-Rated record so any qualifiers of plans that accept non top-rated runners (ie: Sydney Gold and Sydney Gold Pro) will only show the Top-rated qualifiers in this spreadsheet.

This is the first time we have been able to provide all Sydney and Melbourne Top-Rated data on one spreadsheet.

 

Melbourne Top-Zone

If a top-rater qualified as a Top-Zone bet, the bet amount is listed along with the return and the profit.

 

Melbourne and Sydney Elite-Top Bets

These are the Top-Rated selections that have passed Larry and Ric’s private filters. They are provided as a free bonus to clients who hold current memberships to both Melbourne and Sydney services.

 

Sydney Gold Bets

Ric’s Sydney Gold bets are listed – the bet amount is listed along with the return and the profit.

 

Sydney Gold PRO Bets

Ric’s amazing Sydney Gold PRO bets are listed – the bet amount is listed along with the return and the profit.

 

DANGER!

You will notice that some rows of data are marked in red. That shows the top-rater in question is within an area that, over the long term, is known to be weak. In other words, the selection has to buck the odds to a point where I would recommend caution at least or no bet at all.

 

We have done this to give members a head start to their personal analysis showing how just three variables for Syd and three for Melbourne can affect the long-term results in such a massive way.

 

Sydney Danger Zone: The known poor-performing are 3yo races, distance races greater than 2000 and races away from Randwick and Rosehill.

 

Melbourne Danger Zone: The 3yo and Benchmark less than 84 at the country meetings, the benchmark less than 78 in the city and the spring races (October through Cup week at Flemington).

That’s it, just three areas in each state for logical, simple danger-zone identification. All other races are OK.

 

Top-Raters Mel-Syd 2017-2018 in the Danger races

346 bets for 62 winners (17.9% s-rate).

Level $100 bet $34600, Return $24101, LOSS $10,499 -30%

 

Top-Raters Mel-Syd 2017-2018 in the other (OK) races

1156 bets for 322 winners (27.9% s-rate)

Level $100 bet $115600, Return $141969, Profit $26,369 +23%.

 

The Top-Rated Mel & Syd spreadsheet documents ALL rated races. The danger races clearly marked. If you back ALL Top-Raters, the profits are good but by cutting back or rejecting the danger races, the top-rated returns are fantastic.

 

 


“Dangerous” v “OK races

 Elite Racing TOP-Rated TIPS 2017-2018

 

This is a month by month summary of Mel-Syd Top-Rated tips as delivered in 2017-2018 in DANGER Races.

$100 Level Bets.

 

Here is the month by month summary of Mel-Syd Top-Rated tips as delivered in 2017-2018 in the OK Races.

$100 Level Bets.

These are sensational stats for 1156 top-rated tips over two years. They provide such a strong base for  our main plans

 Elite Racing - Mel-Syd-TOP-ALL-2017-2018-Danger-Races-1 Elite Racing - Mel-Syd-TOP-ALL-2017-2018-OK-races

 

The application of the three simple exclusion rules in both states makes an enormous difference to the bottom line.

You can see that Prezado’s $9 top-rated win at Pakenham last Saturday is now relegated to the “Danger” list but it is not much help to the bottom line of those discards. December has done very well without him.

Of course, Theanswermyfriend was a $10 top rated winner in an OK race on the same card!

It is so exciting going into 2019 armed with this knowledge!

 

Melbourne Top-Zone 2017-2018

Analysis of Top-Zone qualifiers

 

This is a month by month summary of Mel Top-Zone tips as delivered in 2017-2018 in DANGER Races.

Most were during the spring and a few were in the weak country races.

 

This shows the Top-Zone qualifiers for 2017-2018 that were in the OK races.

The danger races contribute nothing overall and the spring races hurt this year.

 

 Elite Racing - Mel-Top-Zone-ALL-2017-2018-in-danger-races  Elite Racing - Mel-Top-Zone-2017-2018-In-OK-Races

 

Elite Racing Top-Rated Sydney Gold
2017-2018

Here are the Sydney Gold qualifiers that were in races we have identified as poor (danger) races.

 

This is the Sydney Gold OK list without the danger race qualifiers.

 

 Elite Racing - Syd-Gold-2017-2018-in-danger-races  Elite Racing - Syd-Gold-2017-2018-OK-Races

 

Elite Racing Top-Rated Sydney Gold PRO

2017-2018

 

Here are the Sydney Gold PRO qualifiers that were in races we have identified as poor (danger) races.

 

This is the performance of the Sydney Gold PRO in the OK Races.

 

 Elite Racing - Syd-Gold-PRO-2017-2018-in-danger-races  Elite Racing - Syd-Gold-PRO-2017-2018-OK-races

 

Analysis of the Elite-Top Bets

Larry and Ric’s private filters applied to top raters) Emailed to Mel-Syd members.

 

These Mel-Syd Elite-Top (Larry and Ric’s private filter) qualifiers that were in what we have recently identified as poor (danger) races.

37 of them over the two year analysis and unfortunately three since we went live with this free bonus after the spring carnival.

 

Larry and Ric’s private Elite-Top filter applied to Top-Rated Mel and Syd selections.

These are the ones that were in the OK races.

Remember, the excellent figures for Nov and Dec 2018 are the ‘live’ bets.

All previous results are based on our filters applied to the base data that is recorded and set in stone each race mornings.

We can’t divulge our private filters so unlike the other strategies where we provide the qualifying algorithms, the pre-Nov 2018 Elite-Top results can’t be checked.

 

 Elite Racing - Elite-Top-2017-2018-in-danger-races  Elite Racing - Larrys-Elite-Top-2017-2018-in-OK-Races

 

SUMMARY

 

We have found a way to continue recording the data of EVERY rated race yet still alert members when a race is a dangerous win-betting proposition.

That way members have access to ALL data for ALL rated races to analyse with their own ideas and what-ifs with a head start as to where first to look for weak areas.

We can’t change the past but we have taken the necessary steps to ensure that no future main-strategy qualifier can come from those weak, danger races.

Algorithms will be updated and in place for all plans as from Saturday 15th Dec and will not affect pre-Dec 15th 2018 results. The various spreadsheets will be updated in the coming days.

All past results for each plan and indeed all the top-raters stand.

So, if you are betting any of the main plans (Top-Zone, Elite-Top, Sydney Gold and Sydney Gold Pro) there is no need to do anything different.

For those still betting all the top-raters I recommend that you consider reducing – or, better still, rejecting – those top-raters (like Prezado) that are in the danger zone. They will be clearly identified on the raceday messages.

Our comprehensive results and analysis opportunities for members goes way beyond any other service. They usually have no idea what they did in the past which is a good thing for them.

Elite members’ analysis and transparency resources have now expanded with the addition of the Ultimate one-stop analysis tool for Melbourne and Sydney top-raters.

 

Go to it, have some fun and be amazed at the possibilities.

 

Or… simply sit back enjoy the ride into 2019 and beyond knowing that we have done the hard yards to make sure that the results coming up will certainly out-perform the excellent winning stats of the past two years.

 

Yes, we are already assessed independently as the number one service for performance but that doesn’t mean we stop striving for excellence. We intend to widen the gap.

 

Cheers

Larry and Richard