State of Play in May

State of Play in May

This newsletter explains the Mel-Syd FILTERS concept as well as updating May results.

Elite-Top (Larry and Ric Private Filter)

10 Bets 5 winners

Bet $1120

Return $ 2760

Profit $1640 (146%)  

 

Top-Zone (Mel Only)

2 bets 1 winner

Bet $ 384

Return $720

Profit: $336 (87.5%) 

 

Sydney Gold

4 Bets 2 winners

Bet $550

Return $1130

Profit  $580 (105%) 

 

Sydney Gold Pro

2 Bets 1 winners

Bet $400

Return $760

Profit  $360 (90%) 

 

Top Ratio (ALL)

41 Bets 10 winners

Bet $3001

Return $3599

Profit  $598 (20%) 

 

Top Ratio ($100+)

10 Bets 3 winners

Bet $1930

Return $2570

Profit  $640 (33%)  

 

Larry and Ric Best

6 Bets 1 winners

Bet $1200

Return $ 1000

Profit – $200 (- 16%)  

 

Top-Rated ALL

41 bets 10 winner

Bet $ 4100

Return $4520

Profit: $420 (10%)  

 

It has been a good month so far despite the obstacles in Sydney where we had  a go at Kensington which cost us followed by a meeting at Scone.

Richard retrieved the losses from the Kensington experiment (-$600 for Top Ratio $100+) as soon as he got a ‘real’ meeting (Rosehill on Saturday, +$820).

 

Mel/Syd Filters

 

All the above is just a short snippet in long term scheme of things but with the backdrop of everyone winning it is a good time to get serious with the Syd and Mel filters that we discussed in the previous newsletter.

Newsletter-May-14-2019-Top-Ratio and Filters  Pdf

Results Reference:
Mel-Syd-Filters-All-Bets-2014-2019  Pdf of EVERY “Filter” bet 2014-2019

The strategy is made up of three components:
Mel-TOP-RATED-FILTER 2014 2019  Pdf Melbourne Top-Rated Filter Results 2014-2019
Mel-2-3-4-RATED-FILTER 2014 2019  Pdf Melbourne 2nd-3rd-4th Rated Filter Results 2014-2019
SYD-FILTER 2014 2019  Pdf Sydney Filter qualifiers results 2014-2019 (can be Top-Rated or lower rated)

On Saturday (May 18th 2019), the qualifying “Filter” bets were again listed on the applicable spreadsheets in the morning for members to follow. They were also listed on the Mel online raceday page before the deadline as requested by some non-spreadsheet members.

Here is Saturday’s list of qualifiers:

Elite Racing - Filter May 18

Deprive was a late scratching so there were 8 qualifiers. Star of the Seas and Grey Lion won in Sydney at $3.70 and $3.80 and Big Night Out and Spanner Head won in Mel at $3.20 and $4.40.

Eight bets, four winners and a net profit of $710 ($100 level).

We will add the list to each applicable raceday email from Saturday (Mel qualifiers on the Mel email and Sydney on the Syd email). We simply recommend a level bet on all qualifiers.

Of course it is designed for and best suited for members of both Mel and Syd but single-state members will still have a very strong long-term plan. Dual state members will benefit from the smoothing effect when one state has a bad day.

 

There is a lot of excitement about this concept.

Members like the possibility of betting on some of the non-Top-rated horses like Big Night Out, they like the extra action which fills the void left by not betting on the less-than-$100 Top-Ratios and they are happy that there can be action throughout the spring carnival as well as the bush meetings.

One thing to understand right from the start;  this approach has nothing to do with any other plans and there can be qualifiers that coincide with other strategies as well as qualifiers that may have been rejected by the other main plans.

It must therefore be operated separately with its own bank without any reference to bets you may have already had with another plan.

For example, on Saturday Top-Ratio $10k bank punters would have had $250 on Grey Lion and could be tempted to say, “I’ve already had a good crack at Grey Lion…”. Don’t cross-reference, operate in its own right or forget it because it simply won’t stand up if you reject some qualifiers.

For reference here are the rules (a screenshot straight from the Mel-Syd-Filters-2019 Spreadsheet).

Elite Racing - Filter Rule

We will simply run with “Filters” concept from Saturday as an extra option for members. It will prove itself over time and I reckon it is worth adding to and Elite professional portfolio.

I have been testing this plan in real time with a $20k bank. I do not find any problem operating this as a separate concern from the main strategies. I simply list the bets on a landscape page apart from the other plans.

Here’s my actual betting list from Saturday. The gap in the middle is where I list the bookies with the actual bets and odds secured. The totals to the right are the actual bets and returns. (Some bets or parts of some bets are placed during the day at different odds to the BOB or Top Flucts. That’s up to each member to try to secure better odds, there is no fixed plan or rules there. )

Elite Racing - Filter Bets

It’s a lot of fun and the following stats will show that winning days of  $830 (per $10k bank) like Saturday is not uncommon.

 

Firstly, here is the reason that I can say that this strategy is a great replacement for the less-than-$100 Top-Ratio bets:

 

The ‘filters’ graph has an almost perfect trajectory and shows fantastic returns over the four and a half years. However, don’t even start unless you understand that there can be prolonged  periods of getting nowhere. There is one period (June 2015 to June 2016) where the bank went nowhere. That was before Sydney (started late 2016) and it has not stagnated for such a long period since Mel-Syd have been working together but you must lock in a long haul mindset.

 

Top-Ratio $10 and $50 bets.

This is one slippery slope we don’t want to be on!

We only became aware of the pre 2017 performance as we researched the ‘filters’ idea. We did not realise it was this bad.

Fortunately since the Top-ratio went live in December, the $10 and $50 bets have held their own so it hasn’t hit our hip pocket too hard. But it looks a lot like a dead cat bounce to me.

 Elite Racing - Filter 2014-2019  Elite Racing - Graph Top Ratio less then

Fortunately, the Top-Ratio $100+ graph is the opposite of the less-than-$100 bets.

Elite Racing - Graph Top Ratio

 

Back to the Filters…

The Mel-Syd-Filters-2019 Spreadsheet has a wealth of information, stats and analysis for members. It is impossible to present all that data and analysis in a newsletter.

This month by month summary give a good insight to the potential of the concept:

Elite Racing - Filters PIVOT

 

Here is a pic of my computer screen showing just one of the worksheets within the spreadsheet with “Filter” summaries and graphs of Mel-Syd, Mel, Syd, Top-Ratio <$100 and Top-Ratio $100+

Mel Syd Filter Spreadsheet Filters Data and Graphs

 

We have even included a worksheet which shows the meeting by meeting results of the Filters (Mel-Syd), Top-Ratio $100+ and then a COMBINED summary of a $20k bank to bet all Filters qualifiers and all Top-Ratio $100+ since Jan 2015.

Mel Syd Filter Spreadsheet Combined

 

For example on Saturday the Filters bet $800 and returned $1510.

The Top-Ratio $100+ bet $880 for a return of $1320.

The combined summary shows Bet $1680, Return $2830 for a profit on the $20k bank of $1150.

Over the 2015 to now period, the net profit is $133k. That’s $30,000 profit a year from a $20k bank.

Since the Top-ratio ‘live’ date (26/12/2018) the net profit is $8,541 despite that late-March early-April period burning up $3,580 in four losing days. That’s a 17.9% hit which was retrieved with interest over the five meetings since.

The biggest losing streak was a $3586, six-meeting run in Jan 2016.

 

Conclusion

I could list results and stats ‘til the cows come home and all  that matters is what happens in the future but the past data does provide great confidence that the Filters idea is certainly worth pursuing.

It has won every week except one during the trial where the bets have been listed for members on the spreadsheets. It is already one from one for those who only became aware of it after last week’s newsletter.

Take it for what it is, a new fresh angle that provides plenty of action and plenty of fun and is a great replacement for the $50 and $10 Top-Ratio bets.

We will list the qualifiers each raceday as another free extra for members to consider.