30% strike rate at $5.26…for the PLACE!
Elite Newsletter to Members
With the changing face of Australian racing, especially in the betting landscape, in the past year especially, we have noticed a definite trend of more and more rated selections placing at amazing odds. Nearly all the main players these days are zeroing in in the top two or three in the market and there is definitely some rich over-the-odds place pickings for good chances away from the favourites.
You would have noticed Elite-Rated selections Bonvicini, Aristia, Travimyfriend and Amish Boy place at Flemington at $6.30, $4.40, $5.40 and $9.10 respectively. There is the opportunity for those who don’t mind place betting to take advantage of Elite’s ability to consistently find these well-placed long-shots.
Using the members online Master Data (Mel) spreadsheet, I quickly put together a place-betting model that provides 30% place-getters @ $5.26 average div for a net level profit of 56.5%. Yes, $5.26 average PLACE dividend!
I present these rules simply to alert you to the place possibilities – and to whet your appetite. No doubt different members will come up with their own different rules.
- Rated 1-5
- Starters 10-15
- Mel City only
- No apprentice claims of 2.0kg or more
- Best odds greater than $15.
Using my rules, you would need to be able to watch the odds up to late in betting but I am sure the great majority of qualifiers would have reached win odds of >$15 well before race time.
Summary:
Elite Place Betting November 2019 to September 2020.
Here is a summary of the results since last spring. A lot of members like to play around with the mass of data and interactivity that we make available. The initial push in the right directions is all it takes sometimes to find their own personal profit-making betting plan.
Note: This pdf lists of all the 121 qualifiers. Place Betting Suggestion pdf
Summary
You will no doubt notice the 74% WIN betting net profit but 8 winners from 121 bets leaves a lot of long runs with no collects and there is no guarantee of the next 121 bets producing 8 winners @ $26.26.
Maybe a 1 x 3 win : place ratio would be the go.
Multi Betting
I will try to get the multi spreadsheet up to date this week. We mentioned the multis in Saturday’s raceday preamble because it was one of those high-risk win betting days at Flemington. The suggested rules for our multi betting is always included with the “Elite Ratings at a Glance” list of rated races.
There were Exacta, Trifecta and First Four returns in three races:
Exactas:
R4 $26.50
R7: $18.40
R8: $223
Trifectas:
R4 $108
R7: $338
R8: $2,866
First Fours
R4 $474
R7: $2,741
R8: $9,517
Regards
Larry
