Newsletter to Elite Members Nov 17th 2019

Newsletter to Elite Members Nov 17th 2019

Plenty of Sunday reading for members after a big winning day at Sandown.

  • Elite Filters Sandown
  • Elite Filters Since Starting
  • Top-Ratio
  • Top-Rated Bets
  • The Money Trail
  • Private Betting Ideas
  • Larry’s $60k Bank, Proof of $4,920 Actual bets at Sandown.

The return of Mel main strategies at Sandown was very timely due to the zero bet day at Newcastle.
It was a tough day at Sandown so it was extra satisfying to glean very strong profits first up from our spell.

Elite Filters Sandown

The Elite Filters hit with three winners from six bets and made + $596 ($10k bank) for the day.

Two of those Elite-Filter bets were non top-rated (2-3-4 rated betting against “high-risk” top-raters) and Goldfields showed the power of that idea, winning by a nose.
Azuro was our sole Larry’s Best and he started off the Elite-Filters post-spring era beautifully.
We thought Home of the Brave got there but alas, he missed by a nose. It all evens out in the end.
Southern France put the icing on the cake with his dominant win.

 

Elite Filters this season

The Elite Filters got away to a shaky start. The Mel-Syd tally after the first five meetings was  minus $1086 with only one winning meeting. The waters were  awash with disgruntled members who jumped the Elite ship.

Since then (14th Sept to now) we have tackled a further 11 meetings and made + $3,687 net profit. NINE of the past 11 meetings made a profit.

So, this season, the net profit for a $10k bank betting on Mel-Syd Elite-Filters as-listed is + $2,602.

You know from our most recent newsletter that our aim is to, as a bare minimum, double the Elite-Filters starting bank (as at Saturday 16th Nov) before October 2020. We have already made $596 of the $10k profit required – in one day.

Those who started on day one (Aug 1st) have made 26% capital gain so are well on the way to doubling the starting bank.
Of course, individual dollar results could vary slightly due to applying the max-bet% for the period that was available but the percentage on turnover is virtually the same.

Most members are very happy to no longer have to calculate their bets according to max-bet%. We do that here and you simply place your bets as -listed.

Elite-Filters Complete Results back to 2017.

 

Top-Ratio

The Top-Ratio had a winning day with 46% profit on turnover (+ $290).

Top-Rated Bets

Betting the Average, OK and Good Top-Raters (as recommended) got two winners from five for a profit of $110. ($100 lev bets).

The Money-Trail

The Mel Money Trail got four from nine and made 41% pto.

The spring found this plan out this year but it looked much better Saturday morning and turned out that way. The first 2.0% bets since we started appeared at Sandown and two of the three won. Home of the Brave missed by a millimetre.
The bigger the Money-Trail bet the better and since the Money-Trail started in Mel (5th Oct), the 1.00%+ bets (that’s $10 to $20 as listed to a $1k Bank) are actually doing OK.
From the start to Sandown Saturday, 10 winners from 33 for a net profit of 8.5% on turnover. For a $10k bank, the net profit on those is + $400.
The less-than 1.00% bets (That’s the $1 to $9 as listed) are really struggled with just 5 from 42 and a loss of 63% pto. That’s – $1,880 for a $10k bank.
They did get one from 2 at Sandown (Pretty Brazen) which is hopefully a sign of improved performance now that we are back to ‘normal’ racing.

Sydney Money-Trail is in a watch and learn phase as explained when the Money-Trail started. We don’t have past data for Sydney like the many years of public listing of these horses on Facebook for Melbourne racing. We were able to develop a much more complex grading system for Mel based on thousands of real-time, public bets.

Sydney Money Trail bets are just in profit since starting which is great but we are continuously monitoring and already have some ideas to improve Sydney Money-Trail profits.  One example is now that we have a very accurate grading system for Sydney Top-Raters (Good, OK, Ave, Poor and High-Risk) we must take a second look at Money-Trail qualifiers that are High-Risk. Without those Money-Trail qualifiers, the net profit so far is improved to 12.7% or $670 for a $10k bank. More to come on this.
The Money Trail is free for a period mainly due to the ongoing development to get the absolute best out of this long-term, proven-live, concept.

Elite Private Betting Opportunities

Lots of members use the data provided to formulate their own approach to betting on Elite raceday information. I encourage that and I am no exception, always looking for the ultimate to share with all members.
Other members ask for a one-bank solution to take advantage of multiple Elite strategies.

For personal use, I have done some groundwork to develop a raceday spreadsheet where I can integrate my favourite plans and get a final single bet from one single bank. This is Mel only at the moment but I am going to include Sydney after I get Mel right.
I want to ultimately make an interactive, non-spreadsheet-user friendly tool so any interested member can consider utilising using their own banks and strategy betting preferences.

I am very bullish about several strategies we have in place. Keep in mind, this is simply my doodling from the data that we all have access to on race morning.

  • The Elite Filters is a proven winner and I am very confident with these bets.
  • The Elite Master Grades straight from your Master Data spreadsheet (always uploaded prior to the meeting). This is the Filter% or max-bet% (Column AY, see Saturday’s list below) that we utilise at this end to adjust main strategy bets. Spreadsheet users would be well aware how this figure is used to determine the gradings (High-Risk through to Good) that are now in place. In simple terms it is a way to bet on the Good, OK and Ave as per the post-spring newsletter plus the 2-3-4 qualifiers.
    Note: This is not an official Elite Strategy, just an area I am personally interested in to find a way to get even more form the ratings. A work in progress that may or may not come to anything.
    Non-Spreadsheet users: No need to understand the nuts and bolts, it will be made very clear if anything worthwhile results from this guinea pig research.

  • The Mel Money Trail has proven itself to me over several years and I am a believer despite the spring hiccup.

 

My Actual $4,920 Guinea Pig bets at Sandown

At Sandown I collated the bets from these three plans manually for a test run of my theory. You don’t really get the whole picture unless you throw some real money at it.

I was really hanging out for a bet so I de-mothed the wallet and dedicated a separte $60k bank.

$20k was dedicated to the Elite-Filters, $30k to the seven column “AY”  Filter% Bets as listed above and the other $10k to the Money Trail.

The resultant list of bets yesterday is probably not the way I will end up allocating between the plans – for example, the Filters should have been allocated a bigger share but It demonstrates the fun you can have with one bank on an Elite Raceday.

This is not airy-fairyland like reports received of an opposition genius claiming a $10k bet on a 100/1 no-hoper in the Melbourne Cup.

My money went on and the $2,893 profit is in my account.

I got set with mostly one bookie except for five small bets with Bookie 2.

 

Of course at Sandown there would have been more profit for a $60k bank applied to the Filters (+$ 3576) but having 13 bets for five winners was great fun and could be more suitable to some members than the six Filter bets for three winners.
Some days the spread of multiple plans will help steady the ship and other days the Filters will produce big profits on their own.
Early days and we will see where, if anywhere, this will take us.

Regards

Larry.