Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020

Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020

Six simple filters that increase Top-Rated net profit from $40 per month to $400 per month.

Q:
Larry, my main interest is getting the best out of your Top-Rated Tips. I prefer not to rely on strategies that may have been developed along the way.

Your Master Spreadsheet has great data back to 2014. The Top-Raters are your FIRST choice and I can see that a  level bet on all of them is showing a modest profit over the six years.
Over the years you have explained various chronic red-flag situations for the top-raters.

My question is:
If you were culling dead wood to strengthen the Top-Raters long-term performance, what areas would you avoid and do you have an order of importance for these culls?

A:
Great question. The Top-Raters are one constant that never change over the years. They are listed on race-morning and the data is entered and uploaded pre-race and never changed except for the addition of the result.

Reference pdfs

(All data was sourced from your Members Master Data Spreadsheet online)

Printouts showing all qualifying bets:
Top-Rated 2014-2020 Apply Filter 1 and 2 and 3 and 4 and 5 and 6  Pdf
Top-Rated 2014-2020 Apply Filter 1 and 2 and 3 and 4 and 5  Pdf
Top-Rated 2014-2020 Apply Filter 1 and 2 and 3 and 4  Pdf
Top-Rated 2014-2020 Apply Filter 1 and 2 and 3  Pdf
Top-Rated 2014-2020 Apply Filter 1 and 2  Pdf
Top-Rated 2014-2020 Apply Filter 1  Pdf
Top-Rated ALL 2014-2020  Pdf

Top-Rated ALL 6 Filters Applied  pdf Shows Meeting by Meeting 2014-2020 with NEW All-Time Top-Rated BANK HIGH achieved twice in May-June 2020.

, Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020

The Usual Suspects

There are six key negatives that we have warned members of over the years.
My order of importance would be:

Filter # 1: Danger Races:

The “Danger” filters are included on the spreadsheet: They are self-explanatory and have been covered in great detail in recent years.

, Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020
Cau Rail >8m: Top-Picks on the Caulfield  ‘circle’ races of 1400m or longer when the rail is out greater than 8m are high-risk.

Extreme: Some races are impossible and I now add extreme if I have “no idea”. This stops bets on any strategy. We have only marked four top-rated “Extreme” so far. One came second and the other three missed the place.

The Benchmark (BM)filters need no explanation.

Mel-Spring: Top-Rated performance during the spring carnival drops dramatically most years. There are better way to tackle the spring period.

Take out the “Danger” top-rated.

 

 

2014-2020 Stats for ALL “Danger” Top-Raters 2014-2020 Top-Rated Stats AFTER culling “Danger” Top-Raters.
, Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020 , Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020

Straight away we have upped the base $40 per month net profit to $203 per month.

2: Races with more than 15 Starters.

Our long-term statistics tell us clearly that our top-rated performance falls away as the fields get larger than 15.

Note: Each additional Filter is applied to the previously-filters results. So in this case, the Danger filters is applied then the >15 starters filter is applied to the 1763 top-raters left in.

2014-2020 Stats for Top-Raters in fields of 16+ 2014-2020 Top-Rated Stats AFTER culling “Danger” Top-Raters AND Fields greater than 15.
, Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020 , Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020

Now we are up to $260 per month net profit over six years.

3: 2kg and 3kg Apprentices

The claiming apprentices continuously let us down.

Note: Each additional Filter is applied to the previously-filters results. So in this case, the above filters are applied then the apprentice filter is applied to the 1666 top-raters left in.

2014-2020 Stats for 2kg and 3kg Apprentices 2014-2020 Top-Rated Stats AFTER culling “Danger” Top-Raters AND Fields greater than 15 AND 2-3kg Claimers.
, Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020 , Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020

$314 per month after three simple tweaks is starting to look very acceptable!

4: No bets on tracks graded 5

We have talked about the dreaded Dead-5 (Slow/Soft-5 these days) grading many times over many years.
It is the in-between range where you can’t rule out dry trackers or wet trackers and sometimes you can’t be sure if it will be nearly 6 or nearly 4.

Note: Each additional Filter is applied to the previously-filters results. So in this case, the above filters are applied then the track=5 filter is applied to the 1357 top-raters left in.

2014-2020 Stats for Top-Raters on track graded 5 2014-2020 Top-Rated Stats AFTER culling “Danger” Top-Raters AND Fields greater than 15 AND 2-3kg Claimers AND track graded 5
, Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020 , Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020

$350 per month now.

5: Max AM Odds $14.50

The long-shot top-raters (after all previous filters) are no good.

Note: Each additional Filter is applied to the previously-filters results. So in this case, the above filters are applied then the Max Odds $14.50 filter is applied to the 1219 top-raters left in.

2014-2020 Stats for Top-Raters AM Odds greater than $14.50 2014-2020 Top-Rated Stats AFTER culling “Danger” Top-Raters AND Fields greater than 15 AND 2-3kg Claimers AND track graded 5 AND Min Odds $14.50
, Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020 , Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020

Getting close the $400 per month net profit.now.

 

6: 3yo Races: Only bet 1200m to 1600m

3yo top-raters have always performed best between 1200m and 1600m. The sprints do not produce and the distance races invariably lack the data for our methods.
We have included a column in the Master Spreadsheet (BC) to identify 3yo’s that are in the 1200-1600m range and those that are not.

Note: Each additional Filter is applied to the previously-filters results. So in this case, the above filters are applied then the 3yo 1200-1600m filter is applied to the 1194 top-raters left in.

2014-2020 Stats for Top-Rated 3yo OUTSIDE 1200m-1600m range 2014-2020 Top-Rated Stats AFTER culling “Danger” Top-Raters AND Fields greater than 15 AND 2-3kg Claimers AND track graded 5 AND Min Odds $14.50 AND 3yo outside 1200-1600m
, Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020 , Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020

Yes! $420 per month net profit from a level $100 bet (1.0% of $10,000) on qualifying Elite Top-Raters. There are about 4 or 5 bets per week in Melbourne.

That is an average of + 4.2% gain on your bank per month every month without compounding.

May June 2020: Top-Rated Comparison

A quick look at very recent Top-Rated performance gives a graphic example of how effective the simple application of six filters is working in real/recent time.

May June 2020 Top-Raters that passed all six filters Here are the May June 2020 REJECTS
, Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020 , Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020

 

Quarterly Performance 2014-2020 Analysis.

The following pivot tables demonstrate the effectiveness of applying common-sense filters if you are betting the Top-Raters. There is a huge difference in the performance from zero filters to the full complement of six filters.
If you are a Top-Rated bettor, these stats, read in conjunction with the actual results printouts, may help you decide how many filters you would be prepared to apply.

Filter # 1: No Top-Rated bet in “Danger” Races
Filter # 2: No bet if starters more than 15
Filter # 3: No bets if 2kg and 3kg Apprentices
Filter # 4: No bets on tracks graded 5
Filter # 5: Max AM Odds $14.50
Filter # 6: Only bet 3yo’s 1200m to 1600m

Quarterly Pivot:
Top-Rated with ALL SIX Filters Applied
Top-Rated Quarterly Analysis with Filter 6 NOT Applied 
(Filters 1-2-3-4-5 ONLY)
, Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020 , Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020

 

Quarterly Pivot: Top-Rated with Filters 5 and 6 removed.
(Filters 1-2-3-4 ONLY)
Quarterly Pivot: Top-Rated with Filters 4, 5 and 6 removed 
(Filters 1-2-3 ONLY)
, Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020 , Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020

 

Quarterly Pivot: Top-Rated with Filters 3-4-5-6 removed
(Filters 1 and 2 ONLY)
Quarterly Pivot: Top-Rated with Filters 2-3-4-5-6 removed
(Only Filter #1 Applied (Danger races)
, Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020 , Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020

 

Quarterly Pivot: Top-Rated with Filters 1-2-3-4-5-6 removed
ie: NO Filter
, Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020

Rejects

I am sure some members would like to see how each of the six filters fared on their own. That is, no other filters are taken into account. Each single filter in each case is applied to ALL 2,394 Top-Raters since November 2014.

Filter # 1: Danger Top-Raters.
We have already showed this summary for Filter number one. These are all the Top-Raters that fell into the ‘Danger” zone.
Filter # 2: Starters more than 15
With no other filter applied, this is the Top-Rated summary for Top-Raters in races with more than 15 runners.
Filter # 3: Apprentices claiming 2kg or 3kg.
With no other filter applied, the claiming apprentices (2 and3kg boys) shows the folly of blindly relying on them to kick a top-rater home.
, Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020 , Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020 , Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020

 

Filter # 4: Tracks Rated 5
With no other filter applied, this is the Top-Rated summary for Top-Raters on Slow-5 rated tracks.
Filter # 5: Top-Rated greater the $14.50 AM odds
With no other filter applied, this is the Top-Rated summary for Top-Raters that are greater than $14.50 in our AM Odds.
Yes, there is profit there but a strike rate of 6.2%? I don’t think so. The last winner was in May 2018 and 28 have missed since then
Filter # 6: Top-Rated 3yo less than 1200m or greater than 1600m
With no other filter applied, this is the Top-Rated summary for Top-Raters 3yo’s at <1200m or >1600m
, Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020 , Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020 , Elite Top-Picks 2014-2020

 

Conclusion

It is clear that you can’t bet on every top-rated tip. There are weak spots and we know where they are.
Betting EVERY Elite Top-Pick will make a profit but why take on known losing areas?
We all know that 2019 and early 2020 was very problematic with so many previously-discussed changes in the racing/punting market place . It affected our top-rated performance but the six simple filters even got through that period and turned awful negative figures into profits.

Our main strategies have always taken into account at least some of the six filters explained today.
The current Elite Filters algorithm  goes further than the above simple filters and finds a reason to reject a further 30% of the Top-Raters that are left after applying the six Top-Rated filters. It occasionally allows some of the rejected Top-Raters through.

Anyone choosing between Top-Rated betting with the filters applied v’s Elite Filters must keep in mind that the Elite Filters strike-rate and net profit rate (long-term) is much better than the Top-Rated with today’s Filters applied. It also includes bets on horses rated down the list.

But a lot of members are not ‘choosing’ they simply want to be able to back our Top-Pick when safe to do so. We have showed everyone how to do that.

Have some fun with it. There is scope for a betting scale on the qualifiers for those who can delve even deeper into the individual stats in the spreadsheet.

We will look at Sydney next time.

Cheers
Larry