Elite Members Newsletter: Colour Coding Winning Chances
Nice profit on Saturday with Ric hitting with Classique Legend in the Everest at $4.80 from three bets for $242 net profit. No qualifiers in Mel.
It was good to get 7 winners top-rated from the 15 Mel-Syd rated races on Saturday including the Everest and Caulfield Cup winners.
We are covering the Friday Night Manikato meeting (online from about midday Friday) and the Cox Plate meeting on Saturday.
The following Saturday sees the start of the Flemington Cup week. Four days all fully covered (Sat, Tues, Thurs, Sat)
Then it’s back to normality – serious bank-building punting.
Inform Perth Racing
Yet another a profitable day for the specials.
We have colour-coded the main winning chances for three meetings so far and the feedback is very positive. The intention is to demonstrate the race degree of difficulty by clearly showing the definite serious chances in green and the definite dangers to them in blue.
It is early days but a quick look at some stats so far are very interesting.
I have included a spreadsheet so you can analyse as you like and also add new data as it comes along. Colour-Coding Elite Mel Excel
Here is the list of the 23 colour-coded rated races so far.
The first thing to note is that of the 142 non colour-coded runners (242 starters minus 140 colour-coded) just ONE has managed to win. That’s exactly what we want to see.
22 of the 23 rated races were won by colour-coded runners.
15 were green, 7 were blue.
A level bet on all 140 colour-coded runner so far has returned $170. 21% profit.
Not recommended but it shows a great base of value winning chances to work from.
There are lot of ways you can look at the data.
One simple example is to apply a filter to concentrate on just the races where we had three or less green chances.
You can immediately see that there has been 9 rated races with 3 or less green chances with a total of 17 individual chances.
Those 9 rated races have produced 6 green coded winners.
For a level bet on all the greens in races where there are less than 4 of them, the return is $33.40 from the $17 invested.
We Know The REAL Winning Chances
It is early days but the potential is exciting.
Have look to at least reaffirm your confidence that we know the REAL chances in a race, no matter what price. (there are two 20/1 winners and five other $10+ winners on the list already).
And remember, this is the toughest time of the year. There will be a lot more less-than-4-green races after the carnival.
If we can keep getting anywhere near 66% winners (as per less-than-four-green example above)
relying on an average of less than 2 bets in a race (17 bets from 9 races above example) and
see a profit of around the 100% mark (as above) then I’m not going to let that pass.
I can see us going into 2021, hopefully earlier, with Mel and Syd colour coding with a strategy that is super-simple (we’ll work out the bets) and super-profitable – made possible because of the high strike rate and high value combination that only Elite selections with our unique colour-coding is producing.
Our Top-2 strike rate this year has surpassed all previous but we all hate being knocked off by that closely-rated second-rater.
I am confident that we have the basis of a plan that could easily prove to be more consistent and mentally palatable than relying on the single Elite-Filter bets.
Looking forward to the weekend and particularly eager to get into the post-spring races after cup week.