The MAIN Plan: Melbourne – Sydney Elite-Filters

It was a great start to 2021 with all three meetings over the weekend producing good profits.

That was particularly satisfying because Sydney did it again – rain throughout the day causing track downgrades down to H9.
To walk away with 50% winners there was awesome.

Melbourne Friday and Saturday fields were mostly weak benchmark races so 40% winners @ $4.00 average winning odds was very acceptable.

This was the live score for the current Elite-Filter algorithms as reported in the December 29th newsletter:

 

74 Elite-Filter Bets

24 winners (32.4% winners)@ $3.69

Bet:      $10,442

Return: $11,958

Profit:    $1,516

Profit %: 14.5%

 

Now…

81 Elite-Filter Bets

27 winners (33.3% winners)@ $3.70

Bet:      $11,583

Return: $13,976

Profit:    $2,393

Profit %: 20.7%

 

I hope you are all getting onto the Elite Filters. As we reiterate in every raceday message, it is the main strategy. That is where your main bank should be focused.

 

Pro-Strategy

Since 1987 we have listed a ‘pro-strategy’ amount for one, two or three of the highly rated horses. As you would know from reading the intro-pak, this is not a recommended strategy, rather a guide as to our confidence in the main chances. A lot of members want this feature to continue as their own strategies take the pro-strategy amount into consideration.

 

Value

Q:

Good afternoon, I very recently joined your service and am eagerly awaiting my first set of selections for Boxing Day.
I have been familiarising myself with the website and came across the selections for 19 December. 

The first selection (R4 Skiddaw) agrees with the Pro Sheet rating and at $3.80 offers decent value.  The second selection (R5 Midships) is rated only 3rd on the Pro Sheet albeit offering good value at $7.50.  The last selection (R8 Titan Blinders) is rated 2nd on the Pro Sheet.  The AM Odds are $2.80 while the Elite Odds have it at $4.60, suggesting it offers poor value.   I’m not particularly concerned with the results however, the logic behind the selections has me scratching my head.

 

A:

Hi Rob,  Welcome to Elite Melbourne.

The Elite Filters is not necessarily a top-rated strategy. A lot of the profits come from down the rated list.

The qualifiers have no relation to the AM Odds / Elite Odds. As mentioned in the intro-pak, we are not an ‘overlay’ type service.

Although we do find a lot of highly rated value winners like Vassilator ($19 winner rated 6.00) we don’t get too carried away and believe that we can predict horses’ real winning chances with that degree of certainty. Or that the odds calculation will hold true when everything can go out the window at the jump.

In other words, we rely on a long-term mix of strike rate and above industry average winning odds that make winning a certainty. 

That’s our ‘value’.

On Dec 5th the three winning Elite Filters’ AM odds were all less (or equal in one case), than the rated odds…

, The MAIN Plan: Melbourne – Sydney Elite-Filters

Footnote: Since Rob joined Melbourne, the Elite Filters as listed have made already made $605 net profit.