Elite Colour Coding Main Chances

Elite Colour Coding Main Chances

Our Colour-Coding strategy is showing 81% net profit with 7 winning days from 8 so far.

We are building up some serious data for the Mel colour-coding with eight completed meetings over the past five weeks.
We have colour-coded 76 races. Many of those were very tough, wide-open spring carnival races but the data is going exactly as we hoped.

Reference:

Colour-Coding Excel spreadsheet

Colour-coding pdf printout

Example

, Elite Colour Coding Main Chances

Green = Strongest winning winning chance

Blue = Definite danger, could win with no surprise if something goes awry with the green selections.

 

A level $1 on all 527 colour-coded runners so far has returned $574.60.
That’s amazing but we certainly don’t not recommend a bet on EVERY green/blue coded horse but it does demonstrate very strong base of value winning chances to work from.

 

Green

76 races for 311 individual green coded runners. 54 green winners of those races so 71% of the rated races were won by Green runners at average winning odds $6.10.

$100 level on the lot has made + $1,820 net profit.

 

Blue

64 of the 76 races had blue runners for a total of 216 blue runners. 19 blue winners = 30% winners : races. A level $100 made $2,940 net profit. The average winning odds is $12.92.

 

Missed

We missed the winner in three of the 76 races (4%).

 

96% races with the colour-coded winner is better than I would have expected especially as 22 of them were double figure winners.

Seven were $20 or better!

20 of the 22 double figure winners were no surprise to Elite punters.

 

 

Strategy

In the October 26th newsletter, we updated the results of a basic strategy to apply a filter to concentrate on just the races where we had three or less green chances. That plan was first presented early in October.

Pretty simple, if the race has 1, 2 or 3 green runners then back those green runners.

 

At that stage (Oct 26th) there were 17 qualifying races which had a total of 34 green bets.

11 winners @ $4.75 so the net bottom line for $100 win bet was

Bet:                        $3,400

Return:                  $5,230

Profit:                   $1,830

Profit %:              54%

 

Now (After 14th November Sandown meeting)

 

31 qualifying races with a total of 72 green bets.

21 winners @ $4.72

Bet:                        $7,200

Return:                   $9,920

Profit:                   $2,720

Profit %:              38%

 

Sub Filters

Of course, as we get more data in we can more confidently add in sub-filters.

Example: Apply the basic filter as above but exclude races where there more than FOUR blue runners.

The results improve to:

20 qualifying races with a total of 45 green bets.

15 winners @ $5.43

Bet:                        $4,500

Return:                  $8,150

Profit:                   $3,650

Profit %:              81%

 

That is exactly what you would hope. The more “other” chances the less reliable the race, even if there are only 1,2 or 3 green chances. Eliminate them and the profits skyrocket!

Excel users can analyse much deeper using the interactivity built into the spreadsheet. Apply a filter and immediately see the updated results.

There is even a pivot table for further analysis. It is currently set to provide a day by day performance summary of the original plan with sub filters as above

Every day’s a winner except day 1 (October 10th) which is virtually break-even. And remember, this analysis of our Mel colour-coding is through the spring carnival.

 

Watch this space!