Should we be rejecting winners with 68% strike rate?

Should we be rejecting winners with 68% strike rate?

A lot of Melbourne top-Raters are ending up with a lowly 0.5% Top-Ratio bet for no other reason than their AM odds are less than $2.20.

That is not the case in Sydney where the formulas let through the shorter-priced top-Raters. In fact, the Sydney Top-Raters that are less than $2.20 AM odds that end up with a Top-Ratio bet greater than $50 (Like Seaway on Saturday) are winning at 74.1% (20 from 27 in 2017-2019) and have contributed $2498 net profit which equals + 38.7% profit on turnover.
26 of the 27 placed @ $1.22 average place div. There’s a level PLACE profit of 12.8%!

So it was obvious that we had to check Melbourne $50 top-Ratio bets that were less than $2.20 and were thus barred from receiving anything but a $50 (0.5%) Top-Ratio bet. Using the Sydney distance parameters of 1000m to 2000m so as to compare apples with apples, the results were:

26 Mel top-rated winners from 41 bets, 63.4% winning strike rate and a net profit of 23.8%.
40 of the 41 provided a place dividend and the average place div was $1.26.
A simple level stakes place bet on these hot favourites is making +23.2% net profit.

There are not that many.
This season so far (Aug-Feb) there has been 13 qualifiers in Mel for 11 winners and all 13 placed.  

Here’s the list of Melbourne $50 Top-Ratio qualifiers that were less than $2.20 in the AM (morning) odds.

Up to now, these qualifiers have been mixed in with all the other $50 qualifiers.

Some members reject any Top-Ratio qualifier less than $100 so, under the current bet ratio calculations, are missing the potential added power of these short-priced top-raters – if they don’t mind taking short odds.

I can’t simply change the algorithm and make these specific historical qualifiers say $300 bets so I have changed their Top-Ratio bet from $50 to $55 in the spreadsheet. This slight bet-size adjustment has a negligible effect on the bottom line but serves to identify these specific high strike rate top-raters on the historical data.

I am sure many members would want to include them with their more serious bets so from March 1st, these qualifiers will come up with an amount unique to them, to wit 2.4% ($240) bet on the Top-Ratio list.  

Spreadsheet Users:

You can change the start date of the $240 bets by entering a different date than the default 1/3/2019. That way the spreadsheet updates each applicable $55 bet to $240 to give you meaningful back data to analyse.

What does this mean to future Top-Ratio Betting?

Ultimately it is up to you how to utilise this research but I have a couple of suggestions.

  • There can now be the occasional $240 qualifier that would have been $50 under the original formula. If you are happy to bet on short-priced runners, then continue on with Top-Ratio as you have been.
  • Members who don’t take short odds can simply continue to eliminate any Top-ratio qualifiers that are under their acceptable AM (morning) odds threshold.

This research has really opened my eyes to the place-betting possibilities of the higher-percentage Top-Ratio qualifiers. I am talking Top-Ratio qualifiers that are GREATER than $200.

I have attached a printout of the greater than $200 Top-Ratio (Mel-Syd) qualifiers.
This list assumes a $240 bet on the Mel $50 bets that were less than $2.20 AM odds.
For example, you will notice that Saturday’s $50 top-ratio bet on Sikandrabad at Caulfield is listed with a $240 bet for this exercise because he was one of those less than $2.20 on Saturday morning AM odds as explained above.

The stats are simply awesome. 49.5% winners and 75% placegetters from 299 bets. The PLACE net profit is 21.6%. That is sensational profit considering the average odds of the winners was $3.75.

 

Here are the actual greater than $200 Top-ratio bets (Mel-Syd) delivered to you over the past 10 meetings.

Below is what that same five-week period looks like if we include those Melbourne $55 top-raters that would, under the new formula, be $240 bets. Notice how the additional $240 bets smooth out that period after that big day on Jan 12th with six of the eight new qualifiers winning since then. Of course, we can’t go back in time but it will certainly be a boost to have these very high strike rate qualifiers joining forces with the already outstanding Top-End Top-Ratio bets.

In a period of extraordinarily short average winning odds there is still place level stakes profit. I hope you can see the potential of place all-ups with these deadly accurate top-ratio qualifiers.

It is not part of our brief to teach how to bet all-ups or parlay type multis. Bookies have many different options and it is their job to explain to their punters how their particular bet-types work.

The basic idea is to capitalise on successive collects by betting the whole return from bet A onto bet B. Every new bet starts a new cycle therefore every qualifier gets a ‘base’ bet PLUS any amount brought forward.

If for example you started are doing $200 all-up PLACE doubles with In Her Time last week:

Bet A: Base (ALL PLACE Bets) bet on In Her Time  $200.
Collect $400.

Bet B: Sikandarabad $200 (base Bet) PLUS the $400 returned from Bet A
Collect 400 x 1.60 = $ 640 for the completed A-B double. That goes in your pocket.
PLUS $320 being the base bet B collect that goes on the next one.

Bet C: $200 base bet on Zousain PLUS $320 returned from Bet B
Collect: 320 x 1.10 = $352. That’s the completed B-C all up that you keep.
Plus $220 being the base bet collect for Zousain that goes on bet D

Same process for trebles except you don’t pocket the return until you hit with three in a row.

The leverage that can be obtained by place-parlaying two, three or maybe four selections is obvious.
I can see TEN successful place trebles and 17 doubles in that 37 bet snippet. That’s in what I would classify as a lull period for the Top-Ratio Strategy.

I hope I have provided food for thought and maybe some motivation to at least explore the place betting potential of the best Top-Ratio qualifiers. There are plenty of win all-up doubles and the leverage can make for some big returns. eg: Manolo Blahniq into Turnberry on Jan 12th returned $2760 for $100 win all-up.

Richard and I will work on all-ups (win and place) at the top end and see where it takes us.

Regards   Larry and Richard